Here I go. Last year, I was one win short of predicting New England to repeat as the number 1 seed. This season here I go determined to be a better predictor but I'm hoping like crazy I get the superbowl pick wrong(GO SAINTS). With that said, here are my 2013 predicted standings for each conference with analysis.
American Football Conference
East
New England 11-5
Miami 9-7
Buffalo 6-10
New York 5-11
New England for the fifth consecutive season and tenth out of the last eleven will reign once more as the East kings. Though the warning signs were there last year for the pats and this season I did not ignore them. I have the patriots losing five games to the falcons, saints, broncos, and dolphins(in Miami). Plus, one upset.........at Carolina. Miami will improve to 9-7 but whether or not that is good enough for the playoffs remains to be seen. Buffalo will steal big games at home while losing to the teams on the road they should beat. Jets will see the bottom of the division this season as I don't see them improving but look for a home upset.
North
Pittsburgh 12-4
Cincinatti 10-6
Baltimore 5-11
Cleveland 5-11
Sorry, the run is over. Baltimore will not have the luck they have experienced in the past. Losing those weapons will hurt, as will losing the impactful vocal leader Ray Lewis. The ravens prediction is by far my most controversal prediction. But they do not have any easier a second half schedule as they do a first half. They start out at Denver, Houston week 3, back to back road trips at Buffalo and Miami, and Green Bay, probably the strongest offense coming into their stadium. Ravens will get off to a 2-4 start and it won't get any easier at Pittsburgh, against the bengals who will have a superior record, at Chicago, and trips in December to Detroit and Cincinatti and a home date with AFC Championship defeatee patriots. Its starts like this that keep a team from recovering and missing the playoffs. The only way to knock the ravens out of the postseason is to beat them early and often because they are capable of making a late run if they know they can reach the estimated wins. But Pittsburgh makes a huge rebound in the AFC north and takes back this division in demanding fashion. Cincinatti and Andy Dalton still have some obstacles to overcome and Pittsburgh is not a pushover and will challenge Cincinatti to take the next step. The bengals and steelers' rivalry however will continue into the postseason.
South
Houston 12-4
Indinapolis 6-10
Jacksonville 5-11
Tennessee 5-11
Houston is the class of this division and their defense in the offseason got even better. This team is capable of having the best regular season record. But Houston along the way will lose to the more superior regular season AFC powerhouses. But I think they finally get a first round bye. Indianapolis has a hard lesson to learn and they will be brought back to earth. The wheels will start falling off by week 5 and they will go on a losing run before stabilizing in November. By December everyone they run into before Jacksonville has more to play for. It is possible they could win in San Diego but thats one more win. the schedule makers didnt do them any favors playing a beatable division rival Tennessee twice within seventeen days. I just do not see a sweep in that situation. Jacksonville will improve to third place, that will come courtesy of a cross country upset of the San Francisco 49ers in London week 8. Tennessee has yet another rough start to the season with trips to Pittsburgh, Houston, and home dates against San Diegio, New York Jets, and Kansas City. Its more to do with the defensive units of those teams that make me not give titans four of those wins. That will set the tone for the season with Seattle and San Francisco pretty much putting their playoff hopes in early jeopardy.
West
Denver 13-3
Kansas City 10-6
San Diego 8-8
Oakland 4-12
Denver for the third straight season takes this division and will clinch it week 16. Kansas City indeed improves and will make the playoffs for the first time since 2010 and second time in seven seasons. I have defended San Diego every season but this time I just cannot anymore. This team should have traded Rivers as he just is no fit for this team anymore. Oakland will return to last place, a familiar face they have avoided for six straight seasons.
Playoffs
1.West-Denver(first round bye)
2.South-Houston(first round bye)
3.North-Pittsburgh
4.East-New England
Wild Cards
1.Kansas City
2.Cincinatti
It will be in the playoffs where the bengals will take the next step and knock off hated and dominant rival steelers in the wild card round. It will be a long awaited accomplishment for the franchise but they will fall short of the superbowl as that is still a work in progress. New England and Denver's regular season obsessions will come back to haunt them yet again in the postseason when the team they both took the opportunity to defeat in the regular season sends a message in the playoffs as Baltimore did last season.
AFC Champions.................................Houston Texans
National Football Conference
East
Dallas 12-4
Philadelphia 10-6
Washington 6-10
New York 5-11
The biggest surprise..................the fall of the giant. This is the season where all of Eli's achilles' heels happen on the schedule. He is 0-2 against Dallas in week 1 games, 0-2 against his older brother Peyton, 2-4 against Minnesota(1-4 last five only win was against a depleted team in Ford Field), 0-2 against San Diego. He will not pull out a 2-0 run in their early road trips to Carolina and Kansas City. Green Bay, another team who will disappoint, will get revenge finally, and they will continue to not be able to solve the redskins. By the time the giants go to San Diego, a beatable team, it will be too late. All it takes is 7 losses before the final month for a team to not care about the game anymore for the rest of that season. Eli has been a quitter in many games when the odds are stacked against him or he falls behind. His defense has to always play well for him to win. The redskins also take a step back as teams figure out a little bit of RG3 and they get paid back from some bitter division rivals. I have them losing three of their first four, and then trying to salvage their season by the start of November where they will go 3-2, only to split their last four. Dallas rebounds big, this is a division that they can match well against getting two of the four AFC West teams who are a offensive mess, a Chicago Bears team I think they are getting at the right time, and having both the vikings and packers at home. I see 8 wins outside the division(including a saints upset), and paying back the redskins in the division along with nailing the giants door shut week 12. The eagles will rebound and what will help their push to 10 wins will be a big win in Denver and getting the break at home against a Chicago Bears team that will not care.
North
Minnesota 10-6
Detroit 8-8
Green Bay 7-9
Chicago 6-10
This is setting up to be the worst NFC division in football this year. Minnesota couldnt have asked for an easier schedule to start and its going to help their confidence again big time. By the time they host their first division game they will have the upper hand in the standings which will propell them to pull off huge wins against the packers and bears. They are sweeping either the the lions or bears due to having to play both these teams on the road first two weeks and Peterson is good enough to give the vikings a win against one of them. I have the vikings going 5-1 in the division, and there's a bold prediction.........don't be surprised if Phillip Rivers becomes a viking this season before the trade deadline or through waivers. Detroit will rebound but ultimately their road division games will be the deciding factor. I have the lions going 0-3 against their division rivals on the road. Green Bay will disappoint as I see a surprising losing start, they will be .500 before playing the vikings and it won't be an upset week 10 when the eagles come into town and surprise the cheeseheads. The bears fire Lovie and let Urlacher go how does this team stay as good? Not to mention the team planning to have an offensive identity when their defense will act like its still their team. This will be a failed experiment for Trestman.
South
Atlanta 11-5
Tampa Bay 11-5
New Orleans 7-9
Carolina 5-11
Maybe this is a fear tactic so I am not going to be so honest in this prediction. But Atlanta will win the division again if healthy. Should they slip up in one of the games against Carolina expect Tampa Bay to win the division instead. Tampa Bay's defense will prove to the real deal this season with Revis and Goldson and I see them getting off to a .500 start but by the time week 11 happens a home win against Atlanta will start off a season ending run that will propel them to the postseason. They pull off big upsets in Seattle and against San Francisco. New Orleans needs to open the season with a win, otherwise they could start out 0-2 and likely will not get above .500 with back to back road trips to Chicago and New England. Its after that where they could try to rebound against bills, jets, cowboys but I see a slip up, ultimately putting this team in a bad spot when they go back to Atlanta on a short week again, then to Seattle who will be more rested by three days and coming off of a home loss to Minnesota. The last four may not matter much. Carolina won't start off good enough, I see a 0-5 start. All of those teams are capable of winning and four or them are superior teams. They can decide who wins the NFC South when they play Atlanta two times. They will be at a standings disadvantage when they play them both.
West
San Francisco 11-5
Seattle 10-6
Arizona 8-8
St.Louis 3-13
We know SF and Seattle are obvious contenders and that won't change but lets get to the shocker here. People are high on the rams but I am not high on Bradford. Do I think Bradford will carry his team to wins in Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Charlotte, and Indianapolis? No, i do not. And do i believe he is vulnerable to a revenge hungry 49ers team on a short week? Yes I do. This start will define their season. I see a opening win against cards, then a losing streak, a win against jaguars, and another losing streak that is snapped following the bye week, usually one of the best times St.Louis plays hard for a win. With their remaining five games in San Francisco, Arizona, against New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and at Seattle........it doesnt bode well for a team that needs a huge reality check that wins do not define a team more than who those wins are against.
Playoffs
1.East-Dallas(first round bye)
2.West-San Francisco(first round bye)
3.South-Atlanta
4.North-Minnesota
Wild Cards
1.Tampa Bay
2.Philadelphia
Seattle loses the conference record tiebreaker to Philadelphia for the last spot. And there will be yet another rematch for the third straight year between Michael Vick and his former team. And because of his team's defense, he will fall short yet again. Tampa Bay will also lose upon making the playoffs as Peterson just has more experience than Martin and Freeman and that will be the deciding factor. Atlanta, after losing week 16 to SF, will get second shot less than a month later which will spell bad news for the 49ers. Dallas and Atlanta face off for the NFC championship. Romo gets to his first title game but it ends there. The Atlanta Falcons become the NFC's newest underdog and get hot in the playoffs en route to the super bowl.
Superbowl
Its a offensive team versus a defensive team. But ultimately let this be a lesson to Tom Brady and Peyton Manning who allowed this to happen. Matt Schaub isn't good enough to win this game. Because additionally they do have a weakness against tightends its the wrong timing to go up against a ring hungry Tony Gonzalez. The Atlanta Falcons win their first and only superbowl.
I hope I eat my words on that prediction but I cannot help what logic tells me. Manning and Brady's ages are catching up with them. They no longer can play hard more than sixteen games and make the mental mistakes of valuing the regular season too much. It was their downfall before and it will be again. The NFC is in a transition period. Atlanta is in the middle of that gap. Green Bay and New Orleans are not at their best for now and Atlanta takes advantage of that. I just don't see Matt Schaub doing enough against Atlanta regardless of his defense.
Overall, I know these are crazy predictions but every season is different.
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